Interaction with Forecasters & Economists on GDP and CPI held in Mumbai

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) organized the interaction with Forecasters & Economists of GDP and CPI on 24^th September,2024 in Mumbai. The interaction was attended by Shri Ajay Seth, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor, Shri Nilesh Shah, Member of Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, eminent economists – Shri Ganesh Kumar, Member, National Statistical Commission, Ms. Ila Patnaik, Former Principal Economic Advisor, Shri Deepak Mishra, Director, ICRIER among others. The event was joined by more than 50 forecasters & economists of various Organizations/Institutions such as Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Citibank, ICICI Prudential AMC, Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd, Bloomberg Economics, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, Nirmal Bang, RBL Bank, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, ICICI Bank, ICICI Bank Ltd, etc.

While setting the context to the event, Dr. Saurabh Garg, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and      Programme Implementation highlighted various macro-economic indicators released by MoSPI and also updated about the Base Year revision initiated for GDP, CPI and IIP. He also appraised the participants about the newly launched eSankhyiki portal for easy access of time series data on the released indicators. Secretary, MoSPI further informed the participants that MoSPI is planning to launch web-based CAPEX survey to fill the gap in the Private Sector investment.

This was followed by two subject specific presentation detailing present methodology and updates on base revision exercises undertaken for GDP and CPI. Dr. V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor, appreciated the initiative of MoSPI for CAPEX Survey. Shri Nilesh Shah, Member, EAC-PM, MD Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited suggested MoSPI to look for avenues of improvement to ensure data accuracy and reduce time lag of release.

Shri Ajay Seth, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India suggested availability of timely and consistent data for better clarity, investing, business and policy decisions. He emphasized use of advanced technologies for better data governance.

An open house discussion ensued afterwards which witnessed enthusiastic participation from the forecasters and economists. Based on the discussion, the following major suggestions emerged:

• Frequent Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys may be conducted to ensure frequent base revision of Consumer Price Index and other macro-economic indicators. Availability of old indices for chain linking was also requested by users.
• Spatial dimension of GDP may also be given adequate emphasis in terms of dis-aggregations like urban /rural, District domestic product etc.
• Attempts may be made to reduce discrepancy in estimation of GDP from two approaches.
• Possibility of better coverage of services in the revised series of CPI may be explored. Request for frequent such interactions, to understand the methodologies of data collection of education, health services and data for housing index, was also made.
• To have a uniform understanding of core inflation, MoSPI may explore compilation of Core inflation
• Lag for GDP data release may be reduced. Release time of these indices may be changed to provide sufficient time for analysis by the users on the same day.
• Employer provided dwellings may be excluded from CPI to ensure consistency in the data. The methodology for compilation of Housing index may be re-visited.

The participants commended the initiative of MoSPI for organizing this interaction which provided greater clarity and better understanding among users and suggested MoSPI to organize frequent interactions.