Southwest Monsoon Envelops Kerala, Advances Into Northeast India

Advance of Southwest Monsoon:

• Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala and advanced into most parts of northeast India including entire Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and most parts of Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam today.

•  The Southwest Monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of southwest Arabian Sea, some parts of west central Arabian Sea, most parts southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, Mahe, some parts of south Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; some more parts northeast Bay of Bengal, most parts of northeast India including entire Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and most parts of Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam. Thus, Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala, today on 30th May, 2024.
•  The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through 13°N/60°E, 12°N/65°E, 11°N/70°E, Amini, Kannur, Coimbatore, Kanyakumari, 8.5°N/80°E, 13°N/84°E, 16°N/87°E, 20°N/91°E, Agartala, Dhubri, 27°N/89.5°E. (Annexure IV)

• Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some parts of Karnataka, Some more parts of Tamil Nadu, Southwest & Central Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal and Assam and Meghalaya and some parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during next 2-3 days.

•  A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Assam & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels. Strong southwesterly/southerly winds are prevailing from Bay of Bengal to northeastern States in lower tropospheric levels. Under its influence: ✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 7 days. ✓ Isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 5 days and isolated heavy rainfall over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 30th & 31st May, 2024.  Isolated extremely heavy rainfall also likely over Meghalaya today.

•  A cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Uttar Pradesh & neighborhood and a trough runs from above this to west Bangladesh in lower tropospheric levels. Under its influence; Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh during next 5 days and over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada during 01st-03rd June.

• A shear zone runs roughly along Lat. 8°N over south peninsular India and a cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Arabian Sea off south Kerala in middle tropospheric levels. Strong westerly winds are prevailing along Kerala Coast. Under its influence: ✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Karnataka; isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema during next 7 days. ✓ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Kerala & Mahe during next 5 days. ✓ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Lakshadweep on 30th; over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 31st May- 02nd June; Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka during 01st-03rd June, 2024. ✓ Strong surface winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema and Karnataka during 31st May-03rd June.

• A Western Disturbance seen as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu division & neighbourhood with trough aloft in lower & middle tropospheric westerlies roughly along Long. 73°E to the north of Lat. 30°N. Under its influence; ✓ Isolated to scattered light rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand during 30th May-02nd June, 2024. ✓ Isolated very light/light rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning very likely over plains of Northwest India during 30th May-02nd June. ✓ Dust storm very likely over Uttar Pradesh during 30th May-01st and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on 30th & 31st May.

•  Strong surface winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely over Gujarat State on 30th & 31st May.

Realised weather during past 24 hours till 0830 hours IST of today:

• Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions prevailed over most parts of Punjab; in many parts of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh; in some parts of Rajasthan, Bihar, East Madhya Pradesh; in isolated pockets of Odisha, Jharkhand. Heat wave conditions prevailed in some parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Himachal Pradesh; in isolated pockets of West Madhya Pradesh. Heat wave conditions have been prevailing over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan since 17th and over Madhya Pradesh & Uttar Pradesh since 18th May, 2024.
•  Warm night conditions observed in isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh.
• Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 48.8°C was reported at Rohtak (Haryana) over the country.
• Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls observed at isolated places over Meghalaya; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe, Assam and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur.
•  Gusty winds/squally winds data reported over the country.

Maximum temperature observation and forecast for next 5 days:

• Areas having maximum temperatures greater than 42°C: Yesterday, maximum temperatures were in the range of 46-50°C in most parts of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; in many parts of West Rajasthan; in some parts of West Madhya Pradesh; in isolated pockets over East Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha; in the range of 42-46°C in many parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha; in some parts of Bihar, Chhattisgarh; in isolated pockets over Marathwada, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh. These were above normal by 3- 6°C over many parts of Northwest India and in some parts of Central & East India.
•  Gradual fall in maximum temperatures by 2-4°C very likely over Northwest & Central India during next 5 days.
•  No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over East India during next 2 days and gradual fall by 2-3°C thereafter.
•  Rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C very likely over Maharashtra and south peninsular India during next 3 days and no significant change thereafter.
•  No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country.